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Integrating Dynamic Scoring into Fiscal Notes

Fiscal PolicyBudget Analysis

Maryland's Department of Legislative Services currently scores major legislation on a five-year horizon that captures upfront costs but misses the delayed economic returns of long-term investments, higher lifetime wages, lower crime, reduced Medicaid spending, that only materialize over a decade or more.

This proposal recommends embedding a 15-year dynamic scoring model into fiscal notes for generational investments, starting with the Blueprint for Maryland's Future, and outlines a practical "two-yes rule" requiring evidence of both durable growth potential and material fiscal effects before the fuller model applies. The memo estimates that without this change, the state is obscuring more than a billion dollars in long-run costs and benefits on a single policy area alone.

The scoring window

Today's fiscal notes stop counting before the Blueprint's returns arrive

Costs landsalaries, buildings, pre-K

Returns landwages and taxes, lower crime and Medicaid costs

after 10–20 years

Static note sees

≈ −$500M, Year 5

15-year dynamic score sees

surplus, Year 15
Year 05101520

The two-yes rule decides which bills get it

  1. Can it foster long-term growth (capital, labour supply, productivity)?
  2. Does it move state revenue or jobs past a set threshold, such as 0.25% of State GDP (about $1.1 billion)?
Zones and figures from the report: the current window is the implementation year plus four; the return appears “only after 10–20 years”; a static score shows a shortfall of about $500 million in Year 5, while a dynamic model “can show a surplus by Year 15.” DLS projects a 6% yearly return on $3.8 billion: a net surplus of about $228 million by 2034.